A Kellogg Professor Saw the Novig Ad. His Verdict: 'I See the Logic'

Tim Calkins runs Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management marketing program, has graded Super Bowl ads since 2005, and just handed Novig a passing mark. "While some are rightly offended by the campaign," he wrote Thursday on his StrongBrands blog, "I see the logic."

Calkins published a three-brand case study covering the Novig-Sweeney controversy, the Ed Sheeran and Macklemore fallout, and Novo Nordisk's full corporate reboot. The sexualized betting ad earned the only genuine endorsement in the piece.

Clear niche, clear target, real equity

Calkins identified three strategic pillars in the Novig campaign. The brand staked out a tight position as a pure sports-betting play, drawing a hard contrast against Kalshi and Polymarket. The creative aimed squarely at young men. And Sweeney received an equity stake, not just a check, giving her an incentive to see the platform succeed. He did not call the ad tasteful. He called it coherent.

That framing will not satisfy critics who read the sexualized imagery as cynical or exploitative. Calkins acknowledged the offense directly. For a challenger brand trying to carve a specific audience out of a crowded market, though, he said the logic holds.

Ed Sheeran's impossible bind

The Sheeran section offers a colder view. Calkins quoted the dilemma plainly: "Stick with Macklemore and he has to cancel performances and disappoint fans. Drop Macklemore and he is accused of bowing to censorship." Either move costs him.

Calkins argued that artists without a political identity do not gain by building one under pressure. The moment a brand-safe performer takes a polarizing stand, the brand calculus changes permanently. Sheeran, in his reading, had nothing to gain from either direction.

Novo's rebrand says the quiet part out loud

The Novo section is the weightiest of the three. Novo Nordisk rebranded as simply "Novo" in mid-September, cutting its corporate values from ten to four, renaming its culture "The Novo Way," and literally flipping its century-old Apis bull logo to face right instead of left. The tagline: "Lasting Health Starts Now."

CEO Mike Doustdar was brought in specifically to run a turnaround as Eli Lilly seized more than 60 percent of the GLP-1 obesity drug market, leaving Novo with roughly 39 percent despite its Ozempic and Wegovy franchises. Novo stock is down about 15 percent in 2026.

Calkins read the rebrand as a competitive response, not a cosmetic one. The four new pillars are customer obsession, competitiveness, clarity, and care and integrity. Two of the four are explicitly about winning. Swapping ten values for four and promising competitive clarity is the kind of move a company makes when it knows it is behind.

The scorecard

Three brands, three very different crises, one week. Calkins handed Novig the clearest endorsement, framed Sheeran as a sympathetic victim of impossible circumstances, and treated the Novo rebrand as a signal worth watching. The professor who built his career analyzing how brands hold or lose identity gave the sports-betting upstart the highest marks of the three.

Whether Novig's ad campaign becomes a case study for how to disrupt a regulated market or a cautionary tale about sexualized marketing in gambling will depend on what the platform does next. For now, at least one Northwestern professor is paying attention.

A Kellogg Professor Saw the Novig Ad. His Verdict: 'I See the Logic'

Clear niche, clear target, real equity

Ed Sheeran's impossible bind

Novo's rebrand says the quiet part out loud

The scorecard

Sources & further reading

Kalshi Took His Video and 'Turned Me Into a White Dude'

Sydney Sweeney's Ad Is Rage-Bait, Cornell Says. JMU Women Say It's Worse.

DraftKings Trained AI to Find Losing Gamblers, Then Targeted Them